Riding profile

IL-6

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-6: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

IL-6, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CASTEN, SEAN

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Casten, Sean

  • Democrat Challenger

    Ruzevich, Joseph

  • Republican Challenger

    Conforti, Niki

  • Republican Challenger

    Duensing, Skylar

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 57.5%
  • Republican 42.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereIL-6 57.5%42.5%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +5.6 46.6% −4.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
8.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026