Riding profile

IL-6

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-6: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 60.2%

    Sean Casten incumbent

  • Republican 39.8%

    Niki Conforti

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereIL-6 60.2%39.8%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +5.8 44.9% −5.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

IL-6, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CASTEN, SEAN

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 17, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

SEAN CASTEN 75.8%

69,579 votes

Republican primary

Winner

NIKI CONFORTI 82.2%

26,783 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Casten, Sean

  • Republican Challenger

    Conforti, Niki

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
8.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026