Riding profile

IL-4

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
47.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 70.6%

    Patty Garcia

  • Republican 23.4%

    Lupe Castillo

  • Other 6.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereIL-4 70.6%23.4%6.0%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +16.3 44.9% −21.5 5.1% +0.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
The Bullfinch Group Independent Center Jul 31 – Aug 3 653 RV
Democrat 34 Republican 15
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

IL-4, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 71% vote share, against 23% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GARCIA, JESUS

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 17, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

PATTY GARCIA 100.0%

52,616 votes

Republican primary

Winner

LUPE CASTILLO 100.0%

8,336 votes

Winner

ED HERSHEY 100.0%

5 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Garcia, Patty

  • Other Open seat

    Church, Lindsay

  • Other Open seat

    Ed Hershey

  • Other Open seat

    Getty, Christopher Roman

  • Other Open seat

    Macias, Mayra

  • Other Open seat

    Sigcho Lopez, Byron

  • Republican Open seat

    Lupe Castillo

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
40.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026