Riding profile

IL-4

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

IL-4, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 71% vote share, against 26% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GARCIA, JESUS

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Garcia, Jesus

  • Democrat Open seat

    Garcia, Patty

  • Other Open seat

    Church, Lindsay

  • Other Open seat

    Macias, Mayra

  • Other Open seat

    Sigcho Lopez, Byron

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
45.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 71.3%
  • Republican 25.9%
  • Other 2.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereIL-4 71.3%25.9%2.8%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +19.4 46.6% −20.7 5.4% −2.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
40.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026