Riding profile

IL-3

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

IL-3, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

RAMIREZ, DELIA

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Ramirez, Delia

  • Republican Challenger

    Oakley, Angel

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 69.9%
  • Republican 30.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereIL-3 69.9%30.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +18.1 46.6% −16.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
34.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026