Riding profile

IL-3

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
45.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 72.7%

    Delia Ramirez incumbent

  • Republican 27.3%

    Angel Oakley

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereIL-3 72.7%27.3%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +18.4 44.9% −17.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

IL-3, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 73% vote share, against 27% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

RAMIREZ, DELIA

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 17, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

DELIA RAMIREZ 100.0%

72,443 votes

Republican primary

Winner

ANGEL OAKLEY 100.0%

13,991 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Ramirez, Delia

  • Republican Challenger

    Oakley, Angel

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
34.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026