Riding profile

IL-5

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-5: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

IL-5, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 72% vote share, against 28% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

QUIGLEY, MIKE

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Quigley, Mike

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
43.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 71.6%
  • Republican 28.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereIL-5 71.6%28.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +19.7 46.6% −18.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
37.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026