Riding profile

IL-5

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-5: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
48.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 74.4%

    Mike Quigley incumbent

  • Republican 25.6%

    Tommy Hanson

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereIL-5 74.4%25.6%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +20.1 44.9% −19.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

IL-5, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 74% vote share, against 26% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

QUIGLEY, MIKE

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 17, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

MIKE QUIGLEY 64.8%

75,319 votes

Republican primary

Winner

TOMMY HANSON 72.0%

11,921 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Quigley, Mike

  • Republican Open seat

    Tommy Hanson

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
37.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026