Riding profile
AZ-2
The question
AZ-2: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
AZ-2, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
CRANE, ELI
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent Crane, Eli
-
Democrat Challenger Nez, Jonathan Michael
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.2
- P(close race)
- 69%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereAZ-2 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 46.6% +5.5 | 51.9% −4.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gbao | 11–Jun 15 | 500 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Previous election · US HOUSE_2024
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- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026