Riding profile

AZ-2

US House district — AZ · Mixed · us az

The question

AZ-2: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
57%
Mean margin (pts)
1.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 50.1%
  • Democrat 49.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-15Republican62 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereAZ-2 50.1%49.9%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +5.2 54.3% −4.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Gbao 21–Aug 24 500 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 44
link
Gbao 11–Jun 15 500 LV
Republican 44 Democrat 41
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

AZ-2, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 50% vote share, against 50% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

CRANE, ELI

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Crane, Eli

  • Democrat Challenger

    Nez, Jonathan Michael

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
9.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026