Arizona’s 2nd District

U.S. House · AZ-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 55% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.7 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 53%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.5%

Jonathan Nez
Republican 49.5%

Eli Crane, incumbent

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 58% chance (55% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	55%
Orbit	Democrat	58%
50/50 blend	Democrat	57%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
AZ-2	50.5%	49.5%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−4.4	43.9%+5.7

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Emerson College Poll Vault	12–Oct 14, 2026	345	likely voters	Jonathan Nez (D) 50 Eli Crane (R) 48	See the poll
Gbao	21–Aug 24, 2026	500	likely voters	Eli Crane (R) 46 Jonathan Nez (D) 44	See the poll
Gbao	11–Jun 15, 2026	500	likely voters	Eli Crane (R) 44 Jonathan Nez (D) 41 Curtis Goodwin (Lib.) 7	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	14.2% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Eli Crane · Republican

Primary results

Held July 21, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Jonathan Nez	100.0%	65,118 votes
Republican primary	Eli Crane	100.0%	89,205 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Eli Crane
source
Democrat Challenger

Jonathan Nez
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 9.0 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 5.7 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

AZ-1 Democrat, toss-up
AZ-8 Republican, toss-up
AZ-4 Democrat, safe seat
AZ-5 Republican, competitive
AZ-3 Democrat, safe seat
AZ-9 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026