Riding profile

AZ-3

US House district — AZ · Mixed · us az

The question

AZ-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

AZ-3, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 75% vote share, against 25% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ANSARI, YASSAMIN

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Ansari, Yassamin

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
50.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 75.2%
  • Republican 24.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereAZ-3 75.2%24.7%0.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +23.3 46.6% −21.9 5.4% −5.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
44.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026