Riding profile

AZ-3

US House district — AZ · Mixed · us az

The question

AZ-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
56.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 77.6%
  • Republican 21.7%
  • Other 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereAZ-3 77.6%21.7%0.7%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +23.3 44.9% −23.3 5.1% −4.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

AZ-3, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 78% vote share, against 22% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ANSARI, YASSAMIN

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Ansari, Yassamin

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
44.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026