Riding profile

AZ-8

US House district — AZ · Mixed · us az

The question

AZ-8: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
92%
Mean margin (pts)
2.9
P(close race)
87%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 51.4%
  • Democrat 48.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereAZ-8 51.4%48.6%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +6.5 54.3% −5.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

AZ-8, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

HAMADEH, ABRAHAM

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Hamadeh, Abraham

  • Democrat Challenger

    Greene Placentia, Bernadette

  • Democrat Challenger

    Keeler, Raymond Charles

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
13.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026