Riding profile

AZ-8

US House district — AZ · Mixed · us az

The question

AZ-8: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

AZ-8, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

HAMADEH, ABRAHAM

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Hamadeh, Abraham

  • Democrat Challenger

    Greene Placentia, Bernadette

  • Democrat Challenger

    Keeler, Raymond Charles

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.1
P(close race)
9%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.0%
  • Democrat 46.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereAZ-8 54.0%46.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +7.4 51.9% −5.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
13.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026