Arizona’s 8th District
U.S. House · AZ-8
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 64% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.0 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 50%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 53% chance (64% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 64% |
| Orbit | Republican | 53% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 59% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| AZ-8 | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+7.4 | 54.9%−6.1 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 17.0% (± 0.5) |
|---|
Current member
Abraham Hamadeh · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Bernadette Greene-Placentia | 65.7% | 31,312 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Abraham Hamadeh | 100.0% | 69,182 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 13.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.0 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated