Riding profile

AZ-1

US House district — AZ · Mixed · us az

The question

AZ-1: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

AZ-1, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 50% vote share, against 50% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

SCHWEIKERT, DAVID S.

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Amish Shah 32.5%

5 candidates polled · Latest poll Feb 23, 2026 · byhighground

Republican

Thomas (Jay) Feely 25%

3 candidates polled · Latest poll Jun 17, 2026 · bynextgen_p

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Schweikert, David S.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Del Vecchio, Brian A

  • Democrat Open seat

    Galan-Woods, Marlene

  • Democrat Open seat

    Gordon, Mark Robert

  • Democrat Open seat

    Mccartney, Rick

  • Democrat Open seat

    Shah, Amish Dr.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Treble, Jonathan

  • Other Open seat

    Ajluni, Christopher

  • Other Open seat

    Alponte, Monica Maria

  • Republican Open seat

    Chaplik, Joseph

  • Republican Open seat

    Feely, Thomas James

  • Republican Open seat

    Reevs, Paul C

  • Republican Open seat

    Sowers, Brandon

  • Republican Open seat

    Swoboda, Gina

  • Republican Open seat

    Trobough, John

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
60%
Mean margin (pts)
1.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 50.2%
  • Republican 49.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereAZ-1 50.2%49.8%
National averageUnited States 51.9% −1.7 46.6% +3.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Grayhouse 15–Nov 17 500 LV
Democrat 42 Republican 42
link
Grayhouse 15–Nov 17 500 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 40
link
Clarity Campaign Labs CHC Bold PAC | Elect Democratic Women 1–Nov 5 676 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 45
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
3.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026