Arizona’s 1st District

U.S. House · AZ-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.0 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 36%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 53.3%

Amish Shah
Republican 46.7%

Jay Feely

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 72% chance (82% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	82%
Orbit	Democrat	72%
50/50 blend	Democrat	77%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
AZ-1	53.3%	46.7%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−1.6	43.9%+2.8

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls, 5 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Keating Research, Inc.	26–Oct 28, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 45	See the poll
Firststrategic Communications And Public Affairs	October 1, 2026	400	registered voters	Amish Shah (D) 44 Jay Feely (R) 42	See the poll
Grayhouse Scenario 1	15–Nov 17, 2025	500	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 42 Jay Feely (R) 42	See the poll
Grayhouse Scenario 2	15–Nov 17, 2025	500	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 43 Gina Swoboda (R) 40	See the poll
Clarity Campaign Labs CHC Bold PAC \| Elect Democratic Women	1–Nov 5, 2025	676	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 46 Generic Democrat (D) 45	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	12.8% (± 0.4)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Schweikert, David S. · Republican

Primary results

Held July 21, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Amish Shah	39.4%	29,002 votes
Republican primary	Jay Feely	49.8%	43,709 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Amish Shah
source
Other Open seat

Alponte, Monica Maria

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Jay Feely

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Jay Feely
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 3.8 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 8.0 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

AZ-4 Democrat, safe seat
AZ-5 Republican, competitive
AZ-8 Republican, toss-up
AZ-3 Democrat, safe seat
AZ-2 Democrat, toss-up
AZ-6 Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026