Riding profile

AZ-1

US House district — AZ · Mixed · us az

The question

AZ-1: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.4
P(close race)
43%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 52.7%
  • Republican 47.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereAZ-1 52.7%47.3%
National averageUnited States 54.3% −1.6 44.9% +2.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Grayhouse 15–Nov 17 500 LV
Democrat 42 Republican 42
link
Grayhouse 15–Nov 17 500 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 40
link
Clarity Campaign Labs CHC Bold PAC | Elect Democratic Women 1–Nov 5 676 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 45
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

AZ-1, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

SCHWEIKERT, DAVID S.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Open seat

    Alponte, Monica Maria

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
3.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026