Riding profile
KY-6
The question
KY-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.2
- P(close race)
- 1%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereKY-6 | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +9.2 | 54.3% −8.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
7 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners House Majority PAC | 17–Aug 23 | — | LV | link | |
| Dccc Targeting Team | 29–Jul 30 | 474 | LV | link | |
| Gqr | 24–Jun 28 | — | LV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling | 24–Apr 25 | 675 | RV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling | 24–Apr 25 | 675 | RV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling | 24–Apr 25 | 675 | RV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling | 24–Apr 25 | 675 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
KY-6, a mixed riding in KY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
BARR, GARLAND ANDY
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Other Open seat
Jay, Bowman J
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026