Riding profile

KY-6

US House district — KY · Mixed · us ky

The question

KY-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.2
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 54.1%
  • Democrat 45.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereKY-6 54.1%45.9%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +9.2 54.3% −8.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

7 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Lake Research Partners House Majority PAC 17–Aug 23 LV
Democrat 45 Republican 44
link
Dccc Targeting Team 29–Jul 30 474 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 47
link
Gqr 24–Jun 28 LV
Republican 42 Democrat 39
link
Public Policy Polling 24–Apr 25 675 RV
Republican 37 Democrat 36
link
Public Policy Polling 24–Apr 25 675 RV
Democrat 38 Republican 33
link
Public Policy Polling 24–Apr 25 675 RV
Democrat 37 Republican 37
link
Public Policy Polling 24–Apr 25 675 RV
Republican 37 Democrat 36
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

KY-6, a mixed riding in KY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 54% vote share, against 46% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BARR, GARLAND ANDY

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Open seat

    Jay, Bowman J

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
26.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-17.9 pts
Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026