Kentucky’s 6th District

U.S. House · KY-6

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 51% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.8 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 52%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 49.8%

Ralph Alvarado
Democrat 49.7%

Zach Dembo
Other 0.6%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 84% chance (51% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	51%
Orbit	Republican	84%
50/50 blend	Republican	67%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
KY-6	49.8%	49.7%	0.6%
National averageUnited States	44.0%+5.8	54.7%−5.0	1.3%−0.8

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

9 polls, 13 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	19–Oct 20, 2026	—	likely voters	Zach Dembo (D) 47 Ralph Alvarado (R) 41	See the poll
Change Research Kentuckians Not Corruption	Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026	524	likely voters	Zach Dembo (D) 47 Ralph Alvarado (R) 38	See the poll
Dccc Targeting Team	2–Oct 5, 2026	606	likely voters	Zach Dembo (D) 46 Ralph Alvarado (R) 40 Jay Bowman (Ind.) 5 Pete Lynch (KY) 1	See the poll
Lake Research Partners House Majority PAC Scenario 1	Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026	400	likely voters	Zach Dembo (D) 46 Ralph Alvarado (R) 40 Jay Bowman (Ind.) 3 Pete Lynch (KY) 1	See the poll
Lake Research Partners House Majority PAC Scenario 2	Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026	400	likely voters	Zach Dembo (D) 48 Ralph Alvarado (R) 45	See the poll
Gqr	25–Sep 30, 2026	401	likely voters	Zach Dembo (D) 42 Ralph Alvarado (R) 37	See the poll
Lake Research Partners House Majority PAC	17–Aug 23, 2026	—	likely voters	Zach Dembo (D) 45 Ralph Alvarado (R) 44	See the poll
Dccc Targeting Team	29–Jul 30, 2026	474	likely voters	Zach Dembo (D) 47 Ralph Alvarado (R) 47	See the poll
Gqr	24–Jun 28, 2026	—	likely voters	Ralph Alvarado (R) 42 Zach Dembo (D) 39	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 1	24–Apr 25, 2026	675	registered voters	Ralph Alvarado (R) 37 Cherlynn Stevenson (D) 36	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 2	24–Apr 25, 2026	675	registered voters	Zach Dembo (D) 38 Ryan Dotson (R) 33	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 3	24–Apr 25, 2026	675	registered voters	Ralph Alvarado (R) 37 Zach Dembo (D) 37	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 4	24–Apr 25, 2026	675	registered voters	Ryan Dotson (R) 37 Cherlynn Stevenson (D) 36	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.0% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Barr, Garland Andy · Republican

Primary results

Held May 19, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Zach Dembo	39.6%	26,858 votes
Republican primary	Ralph Alvarado	56.5%	36,217 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Zach Dembo
source
Other Open seat

Jay, Bowman J

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Open seat

Ralph Alvarado
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 26.1 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 5.8 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

KY-4 Republican, safe seat
KY-3 Democrat, safe seat
KY-5 Republican, safe seat
KY-2 Republican, safe seat
KY-1 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026