Riding profile

KY-6

US House district — KY · Mixed · us ky

The question

KY-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

KY-6, a mixed riding in KY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BARR, GARLAND ANDY

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Cherlynn Stevenson 27%

7 candidates polled · Latest poll Apr 9, 2026 · bynormington,_petts_&_associates

Republican

Ralph Alvarado 38%

5 candidates polled · Latest poll May 7, 2026 · by1892_polling

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Barr, Garland Andy

  • Democrat Open seat

    Dembo, Zach

  • Democrat Open seat

    Kloiber, David

  • Democrat Open seat

    Petrey, Erin

  • Democrat Open seat

    Stevenson, Cherlynn

  • Other Open seat

    Jay, Bowman J

  • Republican Open seat

    Alvarado, Ralph A

  • Republican Open seat

    Arquette, Adam Perez

  • Republican Open seat

    Dotson, Ryan

  • Republican Open seat

    Gordon, Deanna

  • Republican Open seat

    Plucinski, Greg

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 56.0%
  • Democrat 44.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereKY-6 56.0%44.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +9.3 51.9% −7.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Gqr 24–Jun 28 — LV
Republican 42 Democrat 39
link
Public Policy Polling 24–Apr 25 675 RV
Republican 37 Democrat 36
link
Public Policy Polling 24–Apr 25 675 RV
Democrat 38 Republican 33
link
Public Policy Polling 24–Apr 25 675 RV
Democrat 37 Republican 37
link
Public Policy Polling 24–Apr 25 675 RV
Republican 37 Democrat 36
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
26.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026