Riding profile

KY-1

US House district — KY · Mixed · us ky

The question

KY-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

KY-1, a mixed riding in KY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 49-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 72% vote share, against 28% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

COMER, JAMES

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Comer, James

  • Democrat Challenger

    Williams, John Andrew

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
43.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 71.7%
  • Democrat 28.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereKY-1 71.7%28.4%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +25.0 51.9% −23.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
49.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026