Kentucky’s 1st District
U.S. House · KY-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| KY-1 | 68.9% | 31.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+25.0 | 54.9%−23.7 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 2.4% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
James Comer · Republican
Primary results
| Republican primary | James Comer | 88.1% | 77,678 votes |
|---|
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Incumbent James Comer
source -
Democrat Challenger Williams, John Andrew
General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 49.4 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 37.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated