Riding profile

KY-2

US House district — KY · Mixed · us ky

The question

KY-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

KY-2, a mixed riding in KY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GUTHRIE, S. BRETT BRETT HON.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Guthrie, S. Brett Brett Hon.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Compton, William Dakota

  • Republican Challenger

    Ferguson, Joshua M

  • Republican Challenger

    Perry-Adelmann, Shay

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 70.1%
  • Democrat 29.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereKY-2 70.1%29.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +23.4 51.9% −21.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
46.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026