Riding profile

KY-2

US House district — KY · Mixed · us ky

The question

KY-2: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
35.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 67.5%
  • Democrat 32.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereKY-2 67.5%32.5%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +22.6 54.3% −21.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

KY-2, a mixed riding in KY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 68% vote share, against 32% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GUTHRIE, S. BRETT BRETT HON.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Guthrie, S. Brett Brett Hon.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Compton, William Dakota

  • Democrat Challenger

    Linderman, Hank

  • Democrat Challenger

    Wingfield, Megan

  • Republican Challenger

    Ferguson, Joshua M

  • Republican Challenger

    Perry-Adelmann, Shay

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
46.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026