Riding profile

KY-3

US House district — KY · Mixed · us ky

The question

KY-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
35.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 67.5%
  • Republican 32.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereKY-3 67.5%32.5%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +13.2 44.9% −12.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

KY-3, a mixed riding in KY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 68% vote share, against 32% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MCGARVEY, MORGAN

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Mcgarvey, Morgan

  • Republican Challenger

    Rodriguez, Maria Teresa

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
23.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026