Riding profile

KY-3

US House district — KY · Mixed · us ky

The question

KY-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

KY-3, a mixed riding in KY, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 65% vote share, against 35% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MCGARVEY, MORGAN

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Mcgarvey, Morgan

  • Republican Challenger

    Rodriguez, Maria Teresa

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 64.8%
  • Republican 35.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereKY-3 64.8%35.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +12.9 46.6% −11.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
23.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026