Riding profile

KY-5

US House district — KY · Mixed · us ky

The question

KY-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
87.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 93.7%
  • Democrat 6.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereKY-5 93.7%6.3%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +48.8 54.3% −48.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

KY-5, a mixed riding in KY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 100-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 94% vote share, against 6% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

ROGERS, HAROLD DALLAS

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Rogers, Harold Dallas

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pillersdorf, Ned

  • Republican Challenger

    Smith, Kevin

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
100.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026