Kentucky’s 5th District
U.S. House · KY-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 52.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| KY-5 | 76.3% | 23.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+32.4 | 54.9%−31.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 1.1% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Hal Rogers · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Ned Pillersdorf | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Hal Rogers | 77.4% | 81,554 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 100.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 52.6 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated