Kentucky’s 4th District
U.S. House · KY-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| KY-4 | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+18.5 | 54.9%−17.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 2.5% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Thomas Massie · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Melissa Strange | 72.4% | 30,108 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Ed Gallrein | 54.9% | 57,822 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 99.2 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 24.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated