Riding profile

KY-4

US House district — KY · Mixed · us ky

The question

KY-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

KY-4, a mixed riding in KY, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 99-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 96% vote share, against 4% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MASSIE, THOMAS H.

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Republican

Ed Gallrein 51%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll May 17, 2026 · bygrayhouse

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Massie, Thomas H.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Brewer, Jesse Russell Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Dean, Monica

  • Democrat Challenger

    Strange, Melissa Claire

  • Republican Challenger

    Gallrein, Ed

  • Republican Challenger

    Wells, Robert Stacy Dr

  • Republican Challenger

    Wells, Robert Stacy Dr

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
92.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 96.1%
  • Democrat 3.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereKY-4 96.1%3.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +49.4 51.9% −47.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
99.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026