Riding profile

VA-1

US House district — VA · Mixed · us va

The question

VA-1: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

VA-1, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

WITTMAN, ROBERT J. MR.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Wittman, Robert J. Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Beggs, Elizabeth Dempsey

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bhatti, Ata-Ul-Salaam

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cywinski, Timothy Stephen

  • Democrat Challenger

    Khanna, Lisa Vedernikova

  • Democrat Challenger

    Knapp, Jason

  • Democrat Challenger

    Kopp, Ericka

  • Democrat Challenger

    Lucchetti, Andrew

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pohl, Amanda

  • Democrat Challenger

    Sublette, Sean

  • Democrat Challenger

    Taylor, Shannon Leigh

  • Democrat Challenger

    Tull, Melvin

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.2
P(close race)
45%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.6%
  • Democrat 47.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereVA-1 52.6%47.4%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +5.9 51.9% −4.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America 10–Mar 12 400 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 42
link
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America 10–Mar 12 400 LV
Republican 46 Democrat 42
link
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC 8–Aug 9 541 RV
Republican 41 Democrat 40
link
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC 8–Aug 9 541 RV
Democrat 47 Republican 47
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
12.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026