Virginia’s 1st District

U.S. House · VA-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 55% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.7 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 53%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 50.4%

Rob Wittman, incumbent
Democrat 49.6%

Shannon L. Taylor

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 53% chance (55% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	55%
Orbit	Republican	53%
50/50 blend	Republican	54%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
VA-1	50.4%	49.6%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+6.5	54.9%−5.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

6 polls, 8 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Dccc Targeting Team	24–Oct 25, 2026	478	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 47	See the poll
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	21–Oct 22, 2026	570	likely voters	Shannon Taylor (D) 47 Robert Wittman (R) 46	See the poll
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School Of Policy And Government	23–Sep 28, 2026	609	likely voters	Shannon Taylor (D) 50 Robert Wittman (R) 46	See the poll
Dccc Targeting Team	15–Sep 17, 2026	519	likely voters	Robert Wittman (R) 47 Shannon Taylor (D) 46	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 1	10–Mar 12, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 44 Generic Republican (R) 42	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 2	10–Mar 12, 2026	400	likely voters	Robert Wittman (R) 46 Shannon Taylor (D) 42	See the poll
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC Scenario 1	8–Aug 9, 2025	541	registered voters	Robert Wittman (R) 41 Shannon Taylor (D) 40	See the poll
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC Scenario 2	8–Aug 9, 2025	541	registered voters	Generic Republican (R) 47 Generic Democrat (D) 47	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	4.1% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Rob Wittman · Republican

Primary results

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Shannon L. Taylor	52.8%	25,535 votes
Republican primary	Rob Wittman	0.0%

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Rob Wittman
source
Democrat Challenger

Shannon L. Taylor
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 12.8 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 5.7 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

VA-4 Democrat, safe seat
VA-3 Democrat, safe seat
VA-2 Democrat, toss-up
VA-7 Democrat, safe seat
VA-8 Democrat, safe seat
VA-11 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026