Winner
Shannon L. Taylor 52.8%
Riding profile
VA-1
The question
VA-1: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 90%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.7
- P(close race)
- 89%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereVA-1 | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +6.3 | 54.3% −5.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
4 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America | 10–Mar 12 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America | 10–Mar 12 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC | 8–Aug 9 | 541 | RV | link | |
| Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC | 8–Aug 9 | 541 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
VA-1, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
WITTMAN, ROBERT J. MR.
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Taylor, Shannon Leigh
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026