Riding profile

VA-2

US House district — VA · Mixed · us va

The question

VA-2: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

VA-2, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 50% vote share, against 50% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

KIGGANS, JENNIFER

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Kiggans, Jennifer

  • Democrat Challenger

    Devanath, Nila

  • Democrat Challenger

    Luria, Elaine

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mosolf, Patrick Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Osyf, James

  • Democrat Challenger

    Sleister, Nicolaus

  • Democrat Challenger

    Strickler, Matt

  • Democrat Challenger

    Williamson, Michael

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
50%
Mean margin (pts)
1.9
P(close race)
97%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 50.0%
  • Republican 50.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereVA-2 50.0%50.0%0.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% −1.9 46.6% +3.3 5.4% −5.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
3.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026