Virginia’s 2nd District

U.S. House · VA-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 75% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.1 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 42%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 52.4%

Elaine G. Luria
Republican 47.5%

Jen Kiggans, incumbent

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 71% chance (75% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	75%
Orbit	Democrat	71%
50/50 blend	Democrat	73%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
VA-2	52.4%	47.5%	0.1%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−2.5	43.9%+3.7	1.2%−1.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Christopher Newport University	1–Oct 10, 2026	702	likely voters	Elaine G. Luria (D) 46 Jen Kiggans (R) 43	See the poll
Tulchin Research House Majority PAC	9–Jul 13, 2026	700	likely voters	Jen Kiggans (R) 47 Elaine G. Luria (D) 47	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	6.2% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Jen Kiggans · Republican

Primary results

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Elaine G. Luria	80.3%	33,658 votes
Republican primary	Jen Kiggans	0.0%

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Jen Kiggans
source
Democrat Challenger

Elaine G. Luria
source
Other Challenger

Baker, Matthew

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 3.8 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 7.1 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

VA-3 Democrat, safe seat
VA-1 Republican, toss-up
VA-4 Democrat, safe seat
VA-8 Democrat, safe seat
VA-7 Democrat, safe seat
VA-11 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026