Riding profile

VA-2

US House district — VA · Mixed · us va

The question

VA-2: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.5
P(close race)
61%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 52.0%

    Elaine Luria

  • Republican 47.5%
  • Other 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereVA-2 52.0%47.5%0.5%
National averageUnited States 54.3% −2.3 44.9% +2.6 5.1% −4.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Tulchin Research House Majority PAC 9–Jul 13 700 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 47
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

VA-2, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 52% vote share, against 47% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

KIGGANS, JENNIFER

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

Elaine G. Luria 80.3%

33,658 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Luria, Elaine

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
3.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026