Riding profile
VA-4
The question
VA-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 45.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereVA-4 | 73.0% | 27.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +18.6 | 44.9% −17.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
VA-4, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 73% vote share, against 27% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
MCCLELLAN, JENNIFER
Sits with Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Mcclellan, Jennifer
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026