Riding profile

VA-4

US House district — VA · Mixed · us va

The question

VA-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

VA-4, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MCCLELLAN, JENNIFER

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Mcclellan, Jennifer

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 70.1%
  • Republican 29.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereVA-4 70.1%29.9%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +18.3 46.6% −16.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
34.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026