Virginia’s 4th District
U.S. House · VA-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 45.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| VA-4 | 73.0% | 27.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+18.1 | 43.9%−16.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 5.6% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Jennifer McClellan · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Jennifer McClellan | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Robert Murray | 0.0% |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 34.9 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 45.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated