Virginia’s 5th District

U.S. House · VA-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 70% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.4 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 47%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.5%

John J. McGuire III
Democrat 47.9%

Tom S. P. Perriello
Other 0.7%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 59% chance (70% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	70%
Orbit	Republican	59%
50/50 blend	Republican	64%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
VA-5	51.5%	47.9%	0.7%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+7.6	54.9%−7.0	1.2%−0.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 4 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School Of Policy And Government	23–Sep 28, 2026	600	likely voters	John McGuire (R) 51 Tom Perriello (D) 45	See the poll
Expedition Strategies Scenario 1	21–Sep 24, 2026	400	likely voters	John McGuire (R) 46 Tom Perriello (D) 45 Cooke Harvey (Ind.) 6	See the poll
Expedition Strategies Scenario 2	21–Sep 24, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 48 Generic Republican (R) 46	See the poll
Expedition Strategies	Jul 29, 2026 – Aug 1, 2026	602	likely voters	John McGuire (R) 47 Tom Perriello (D) 44	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	2.8% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Primary results

Held August 4, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Tom S. P. Perriello	79.8%	30,112 votes
Republican primary	John J. McGuire III	84.2%	42,286 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Challenger

Tom S. P. Perriello
source
Republican Challenger

John J. McGuire III
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 15.0 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.4 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

VA-6 Republican, safe seat
VA-7 Democrat, safe seat
VA-4 Democrat, safe seat
VA-1 Republican, toss-up
VA-10 Democrat, safe seat
VA-11 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026