Riding profile

VA-5

US House district — VA · Mixed · us va

The question

VA-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

VA-5, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Krzyzanowski, Suzanne K

  • Democrat Challenger

    Perriello, Thomas

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pruitt, Mike

  • Democrat Challenger

    Riley, Paul

  • Democrat Challenger

    Stichel, Adele

  • Democrat Challenger

    Tracinski, Robert William

  • Democrat Challenger

    Zabriskie, Kathryn (Kate) Ms.

  • Republican Challenger

    Good, Robert G. Hon.

  • Republican Challenger

    Lucero, Melanie Virginia

  • Republican Challenger

    Mcguire, John

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.0
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.0%
  • Democrat 45.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereVA-5 55.0%45.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +8.4 51.9% −6.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
15.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026