Winner
Tom S. P. Perriello 79.8%
Riding profile
VA-5
The question
VA-5: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.4
- P(close race)
- 64%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereVA-5 | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +7.3 | 54.3% −6.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
1 poll
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expedition Strategies | Jul 29 – Aug 1 | 602 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
VA-5, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 52% vote share, against 48% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Winner
John J. McGuire III 84.2%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Perriello, Thomas
- Republican Challenger
Mcguire, John J. Mr. III
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026