Riding profile

VA-6

US House district — VA · Mixed · us va

The question

VA-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 58.8%
  • Democrat 40.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereVA-6 58.8%40.8%0.4%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +13.9 54.3% −13.5 5.1% −4.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

VA-6, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 59% vote share, against 41% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CLINE, BENJAMIN LEE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Cline, Benjamin Lee

  • Democrat Challenger

    Barlow, Pete Hamilton

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gooditis, Wendy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Macy, Beth

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mitchell, Ken

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
28.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026