Virginia’s 6th District
U.S. House · VA-6
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 89% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 89% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 94% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VA-6 | 60.8% | 39.2% | 0.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+16.9 | 54.9%−15.7 | 1.2%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 4.5% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Ben Cline · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Beth Macy | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Ben Cline | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 28.3 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 21.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated