Riding profile

VA-6

US House district — VA · Mixed · us va

The question

VA-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

VA-6, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

CLINE, BENJAMIN LEE

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Tom Perriello 34.4%

3 candidates polled · Latest poll Feb 22, 2026 · bymolitico

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Cline, Benjamin Lee

  • Democrat Challenger

    Barlow, Pete Hamilton

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gooditis, Wendy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Macy, Beth

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mitchell, Ken

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 61.7%
  • Democrat 38.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereVA-6 61.7%38.3%0.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +15.0 51.9% −13.6 5.4% −5.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
28.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026