Riding profile

VA-9

US House district — VA · Mixed · us va

The question

VA-9: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

VA-9, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 45-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GRIFFITH, H MORGAN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Griffith, H Morgan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Murphy, Adam

  • Democrat Challenger

    Powers, Joy

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 69.6%
  • Democrat 30.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereVA-9 69.6%30.4%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +23.0 51.9% −21.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
45.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026