Winner
Joy A. Powers 51.7%
Riding profile
VA-9
The question
VA-9: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 34.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereVA-9 | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +22.1 | 54.3% −21.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
VA-9, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 45-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 67% vote share, against 33% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
GRIFFITH, H MORGAN
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Democrat Challenger Powers, Joy
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026