Virginia’s 10th District
U.S. House · VA-10
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 88% chance (99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 88% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 93% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| VA-10 | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+3.7 | 43.9%−2.4 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 12.3% (± 0.4) |
|---|
Current member
Suhas Subramanyam · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Suhas Subramanyam | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Dave T. Beckwith | 72.6% | 13,388 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 4.6 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 17.2 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated