Riding profile

VA-10

US House district — VA · Mixed · us va

The question

VA-10: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

VA-10, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 56% vote share, against 44% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SUBRAMANYAM, SUHAS

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Subramanyam, Suhas

  • Republican Challenger

    Beckwith, David

  • Republican Challenger

    Perry, Julie

  • Republican Challenger

    Wong, M. Sam

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 55.8%
  • Republican 44.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereVA-10 55.8%44.2%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +3.9 46.6% −2.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
4.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026