Riding profile

VA-8

US House district — VA · Mixed · us va

The question

VA-8: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

VA-8, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 47-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 76% vote share, against 23% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BEYER, DONALD STERNOFF JR.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Beyer, Donald Sternoff Jr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Duffin, Michael Christian Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Dunigan, Adam Michael

  • Democrat Challenger

    Gray, Daniel

  • Democrat Challenger

    Seifeldein, Mo

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
53.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 75.8%
  • Republican 22.8%
  • Other 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereVA-8 75.8%22.8%1.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +23.9 46.6% −23.8 5.4% −4.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
46.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026