Winner
Doug A. Ollivant 56.6%
Riding profile
VA-7
The question
VA-7: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereVA-7 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +3.2 | 44.9% −2.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
VA-7, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
VINDMAN, YEVGENY 'EUGENE'
Sits with Democrat
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 4, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
-
Republican Challenger Ollivant, Douglas
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026