Riding profile

VA-7

US House district — VA · Mixed · us va

The question

VA-7: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

VA-7, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

VINDMAN, YEVGENY 'EUGENE'

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Vindman, Yevgeny 'Eugene'

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cooney, Joseph Patrick

  • Democrat Challenger

    Helmer, Dan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mcauliffe, Dorothy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Salim, Saddam

  • Democrat Challenger

    Schiarizzi, Joseph

  • Republican Challenger

    Durant, Tara Anne

  • Republican Challenger

    Gray, John

  • Republican Challenger

    Mayfield, Darius

  • Republican Challenger

    Ollivant, Douglas

  • Republican Challenger

    Washington, Waverly E. Mr.

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.7
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 54.9%
  • Republican 45.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereVA-7 54.9%45.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +3.0 46.6% −1.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
2.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026