Virginia’s 7th District
U.S. House · VA-7
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 85% chance (98% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | 98% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 85% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 91% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| VA-7 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+2.7 | 43.9%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 12.0% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Eugene Vindman · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Eugene Vindman | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Doug A. Ollivant | 56.6% | 13,594 votes |
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 2.6 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 15.4 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated