Virginia’s 11th District
U.S. House · VA-11
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 44.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| VA-11 | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+17.6 | 43.9%−16.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 10.5% (± 0.4) |
|---|
Current member
James Walkinshaw · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | James Walkinshaw | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Arthur Purves | 0.0% |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 33.8 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 44.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated