Riding profile

VA-11

US House district — VA · Mixed · us va

The question

VA-11: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
45.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 72.5%
  • Republican 27.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereVA-11 72.5%27.5%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +18.1 44.9% −17.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

VA-11, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 72% vote share, against 28% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

WALKINSHAW, JAMES

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Connolly, Gerald Edward

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Walkinshaw, James

  • Democrat Challenger

    Pekarsky, Stella

  • Democrat Challenger

    Roma, Amy

  • Democrat Open seat

    Fram, Bree

  • Democrat Open seat

    Lee, Daniel

  • Republican Open seat

    Purves, Arthur Grahame Mr.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
33.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026