Riding profile

VA-3

US House district — VA · Mixed · us va

The question

VA-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
51.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 75.5%
  • Republican 24.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereVA-3 75.5%24.5%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +21.2 44.9% −20.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

VA-3, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 75% vote share, against 25% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SCOTT, ROBERT C

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Vasquez, Dawn E

  • Other Challenger

    Woll, Stephen C.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
40.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026