Riding profile

VA-3

US House district — VA · Mixed · us va

The question

VA-3: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

VA-3, a mixed riding in VA, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 73% vote share, against 27% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SCOTT, ROBERT C

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Scott, Robert C

  • Other Challenger

    Vasquez, Dawn E

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
45.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 72.7%
  • Republican 27.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereVA-3 72.7%27.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +20.8 46.6% −19.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
40.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026