Riding profile

WI-1

US House district — WI · Mixed · us wi

The question

WI-1: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

WI-1, a mixed riding in WI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

STEIL, BRYAN GEORGE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Steil, Bryan George

  • Democrat Challenger

    Aranda, Miguel

  • Democrat Challenger

    Berman, Mitchell

  • Democrat Challenger

    Bryce, Randy

  • Democrat Challenger

    Follmer, Adam

Current forecast

Republican

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.1
P(close race)
46%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.5%
  • Democrat 47.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereWI-1 52.5%47.4%0.0%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +5.9 51.9% −4.4 5.4% −5.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America 14–Mar 16 400 LV
Republican 50 Democrat 41
link
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America 14–Mar 16 400 LV
Democrat 44 Republican 42
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
10.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026