Wisconsin’s 1st District

U.S. House · WI-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 51% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.8 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 52%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.0%

Mitchell Berman
Republican 49.9%

Bryan Steil, incumbent

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 54% chance (51% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	51%
Orbit	Democrat	54%
50/50 blend	Democrat	52%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
WI-1	50.0%	49.9%	0.1%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−4.9	43.9%+6.1	1.2%−1.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls, 7 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Impact Research House Majority PAC Scenario 1	Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	500	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 49 Generic Republican (R) 48	See the poll
Impact Research House Majority PAC Scenario 2	Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	500	likely voters	Mitchell Berman (D) 48 Bryan Steil (R) 47	See the poll
Dccc Targeting Team	21–Sep 23, 2026	495	likely voters	Bryan Steil (R) 48 Mitchell Berman (D) 48	See the poll
Impact Research Scenario 1	6–Aug 9, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 44 Generic Democrat (D) 44	See the poll
Impact Research Scenario 2	6–Aug 9, 2026	400	likely voters	Bryan Steil (R) 49 Mitchell Berman (D) 48	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 1	14–Mar 16, 2026	400	likely voters	Bryan Steil (R) 50 Mitchell Berman (D) 41	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 2	14–Mar 16, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 44 Generic Republican (R) 42	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	8.7% (± 0.3)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Bryan Steil · Republican

Primary results

Held August 11, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Mitchell Berman	44.2%	31,494 votes
Republican primary	Bryan Steil	100.0%	50,915 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Bryan Steil
source
Democrat Challenger

Mitchell Berman
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 10.2 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 5.8 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

WI-4 Democrat, safe seat
WI-5 Republican, safe seat
WI-6 Republican, safe seat
WI-2 Democrat, safe seat
WI-8 Republican, toss-up
WI-3 Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026