Winner
Mitchell Berman 44.2%
Riding profile
WI-1
The question
WI-1: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Republican
Toss-up
- Probability
- 62%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HereWI-1 | 50.0% | 49.6% | 0.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +5.1 | 54.3% −4.7 | 5.1% −4.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
4 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 6–Aug 9 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Impact Research | 6–Aug 9 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America | 14–Mar 16 | 400 | LV | link | |
| Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America | 14–Mar 16 | 400 | LV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
WI-1, a mixed riding in WI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 50% vote share, against 50% for the Democrats, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
STEIL, BRYAN GEORGE
Sits with Republican
Primary race
Primary results
Held Aug 11, 2026 · Certified official result
Winner
Bryan Steil 100.0%
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Steil, Bryan George
-
Democrat Challenger Berman, Mitchell
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026