Riding profile

WI-4

US House district — WI · Mixed · us wi

The question

WI-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
63.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 81.4%

    Gwen S Moore incumbent

  • Republican 17.5%

    Tim Rogers

  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereWI-4 81.4%17.5%1.0%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +27.1 44.9% −27.4 5.1% −4.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

WI-4, a mixed riding in WI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 52-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 81% vote share, against 18% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MOORE, GWEN S

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 11, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Gwen Moore 72.0%

81,707 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Tim Rogers 81.1%

10,079 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Moore, Gwen S

  • Republican Open seat

    Tim Rogers

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
52.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026