Riding profile

WI-4

US House district — WI · Mixed · us wi

The question

WI-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

WI-4, a mixed riding in WI, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 52-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 79% vote share, against 21% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MOORE, GWEN S

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Moore, Gwen S

  • Democrat Challenger

    Donahue, Amy

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
58.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 79.0%
  • Republican 20.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereWI-4 79.0%20.6%0.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +27.2 46.6% −26.1 5.4% −5.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
52.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026