Wisconsin’s 8th District
U.S. House · WI-8
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 72% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.6 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 46%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 58% chance (72% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 72% |
| Orbit | Republican | 58% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 65% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| WI-8 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+8.2 | 54.9%−7.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.7% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Tony Wied · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Rick Crosson | 35.3% | 24,970 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Tony Wied | 100.0% | 63,211 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 14.7 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.6 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated