Riding profile

WI-7

US House district — WI · Mixed · us wi

The question

WI-7: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

WI-7, a mixed riding in WI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TIFFANY, TOM

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Republican

Michael Alfonso 31%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll Jul 12, 2026 · bytipp_insights

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Tiffany, Tom

  • Democrat Open seat

    Armstrong, Christopher Campbell

  • Democrat Open seat

    Clark, Frederic

  • Democrat Open seat

    Murray, Ginger L

  • Republican Open seat

    Alfonso, Michael

  • Republican Open seat

    Ebben, Jessi

  • Republican Open seat

    Hermening, Kevin

  • Republican Open seat

    Threlfall-Baum, Niina

  • Republican Open seat

    Wassgren, Paul

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 60.9%
  • Democrat 39.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereWI-7 60.9%39.1%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +14.3 51.9% −12.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
27.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026