Wisconsin’s 7th District
U.S. House · WI-7
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 18%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 86% chance (94% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 94% |
| Orbit | Republican | 86% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 90% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| WI-7 | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+11.7 | 54.9%−10.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 1.6% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Tiffany, Tom · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Fred Clark | 37.7% | 25,716 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Michael Alfonso | 49.0% | 49,720 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 27.2 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 11.6 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated