Riding profile

WI-7

US House district — WI · Mixed · us wi

The question

WI-7: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 58.3%

    Michael Alfonso

  • Democrat 41.7%

    Frederic Clark

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereWI-7 58.3%41.7%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +13.4 54.3% −12.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

WI-7, a mixed riding in WI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

TIFFANY, TOM

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 11, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Fred Clark 37.7%

25,716 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Michael Alfonso 49.0%

49,720 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Clark, Frederic

  • Republican Open seat

    Alfonso, Michael

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
27.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026