Wisconsin’s 3rd District

U.S. House · WI-3

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.8 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 37%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 53.2%

Rebecca Cooke
Republican 46.8%

Derrick Van Orden, incumbent

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 74% chance (82% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	82%
Orbit	Democrat	74%
50/50 blend	Democrat	78%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
WI-3	53.2%	46.8%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−1.7	43.9%+3.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls, 5 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Fm3 Research House Majority PAC Scenario 1	20–Jun 25, 2026	535	likely voters	Rebecca Cooke (D) 50 Derrick Van Orden (R) 46	See the poll
Fm3 Research House Majority PAC Scenario 2	20–Jun 25, 2026	535	likely voters	Rebecca Cooke (D) 50 Derrick Van Orden (R) 46	See the poll
Impact Research	26–May 31, 2026	500	likely voters	Rebecca Cooke (D) 50 Derrick Van Orden (R) 46	See the poll
Impact Research	12–Feb 17, 2026	500	likely voters	Rebecca Cooke (D) 49 Derrick Van Orden (R) 48	See the poll
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	14–Oct 15, 2025	609	registered voters	Rebecca Cooke (D) 44 Derrick Van Orden (R) 42	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	2.0% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Derrick Van Orden · Republican

Primary results

Held August 11, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Rebecca Cooke	60.5%	56,650 votes
Republican primary	Derrick Van Orden	100.0%	56,948 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Derrick Van Orden
source
Democrat Challenger

Rebecca Cooke
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 2.7 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 7.8 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

WI-2 Democrat, safe seat
WI-6 Republican, safe seat
WI-5 Republican, safe seat
WI-7 Republican, competitive
WI-8 Republican, toss-up
WI-4 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026