Riding profile

WI-3

US House district — WI · Mixed · us wi

The question

WI-3: will Republican lose this seat to Democrat?

Current forecast

Democrat

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.0
P(close race)
27%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 53.0%

    Rebecca Cooke

  • Republican 47.0%

    Derrick F. Van Orden incumbent

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereWI-3 53.0%47.0%
National averageUnited States 54.3% −1.3 44.9% +2.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Fm3 Research House Majority PAC 20–Jun 25 535 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 46
link
Fm3 Research House Majority PAC 20–Jun 25 535 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 46
link
Impact Research 26–May 31 500 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 46
link
Impact Research 12–Feb 17 500 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 48
link
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC 14–Oct 15 609 RV
Democrat 44 Republican 42
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

WI-3, a mixed riding in WI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Republicans, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

VAN ORDEN, DERRICK F. MR.

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Aug 11, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Rebecca Cooke 60.5%

56,650 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Derrick Van Orden 100.0%

56,948 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Van Orden, Derrick F. Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cooke, Rebecca

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
2.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026