Riding profile

WI-3

US House district — WI · Mixed · us wi

The question

WI-3: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

WI-3, a mixed riding in WI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

VAN ORDEN, DERRICK F. MR.

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Rebecca Cooke 65%

3 candidates polled · Latest poll Feb 17, 2026 · byimpact_research

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Van Orden, Derrick F. Mr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Benjamin, Laura S

  • Democrat Challenger

    Berge, Emily

  • Democrat Challenger

    Cooke, Rebecca

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
95%
Mean margin (pts)
2.4
P(close race)
98%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 51.1%
  • Republican 48.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereWI-3 51.1%48.9%
National averageUnited States 51.9% −0.7 46.6% +2.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

5 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Fm3 Research House Majority PAC 20–Jun 25 535 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 46
link
Fm3 Research House Majority PAC 20–Jun 25 535 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 46
link
Impact Research 26–May 31 500 LV
Democrat 50 Republican 46
link
Impact Research 12–Feb 17 500 LV
Democrat 49 Republican 48
link
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC 14–Oct 15 609 RV
Democrat 44 Republican 42
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
2.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026