Riding profile

WI-6

US House district — WI · Mixed · us wi

The question

WI-6: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

WI-6, a mixed riding in WI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GROTHMAN, GLENN S.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Grothman, Glenn S.
Democrat Challenger

Bell, Amanda H
Democrat Challenger

Bell, Amanda H
Democrat Challenger

Smith, Bradley
Democrat Challenger

Wojciechowski, Aaron Michael
Other Challenger

Thurow, Michael

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 19.1
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 59.6%
Democrat 40.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Republican	Democrat
HereWI-6	59.6%	40.4%
National averageUnited States	46.6% +12.9	51.9% −11.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Pop.	Topline	Source
Tavern Research Contours Inc.	18–May 28	437	LV	Republican 55	link
Tavern Research Contours Inc.	18–May 28	437	LV	Republican 61 Democrat 39	link
Tavern Research Contours Inc.	18–May 28	437	LV	Republican 61 Democrat 39	link
Change Research Independent Candidates Action	17–Mar 20	640	LV	Republican 42	link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by

Republican

Margin

22.6 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

-3.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 15, 2026
Cycle: us_house_2026