Wisconsin’s 6th District

U.S. House · WI-6

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 13%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 56.2%

Glenn Grothman, incumbent
Democrat 43.8%

Brad Smith

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 78% chance (96% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	96%
Orbit	Republican	78%
50/50 blend	Republican	87%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
WI-6	56.2%	43.8%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+12.3	54.9%−11.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls, 4 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Tavern Research Contours Inc. Scenario 1	18–May 28, 2026	437	likely voters	Glenn Grothman (R) 55 Michael Thurow (Ind.) 45	See the poll
Tavern Research Contours Inc. Scenario 2	18–May 28, 2026	437	likely voters	Glenn Grothman (R) 61 Generic Democrat (D) 39	See the poll
Tavern Research Contours Inc. Scenario 3	18–May 28, 2026	437	likely voters	Glenn Grothman (R) 61 Brad Smith (D) 39	See the poll
Change Research Independent Candidates Action	17–Mar 20, 2026	640	likely voters	Glenn Grothman (R) 42 Michael Thurow (Ind.) 38	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.6% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Glenn Grothman · Republican

Primary results

Held August 11, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Brad Smith	50.3%	36,413 votes
Republican primary	Glenn Grothman	100.0%	63,462 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Glenn Grothman
source
Democrat Challenger

Brad Smith
source
Other Challenger

Fitzgibbon, Elizabeth

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Thurow, Michael

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 22.6 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 12.7 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

WI-5 Republican, safe seat
WI-4 Democrat, safe seat
WI-1 Democrat, toss-up
WI-8 Republican, toss-up
WI-2 Democrat, safe seat
WI-3 Democrat, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026