Wisconsin’s 5th District
U.S. House · WI-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 89% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 89% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 94% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| WI-5 | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+15.1 | 54.9%−13.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 4.5% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Scott Fitzgerald · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Andrew Beck | 100.0% | 64,504 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Scott Fitzgerald | 100.0% | 76,702 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 28.9 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 17.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated