Riding profile

WI-5

US House district — WI · Mixed · us wi

The question

WI-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

WI-5, a mixed riding in WI, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 62% vote share, against 38% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FITZGERALD, SCOTT

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Fitzgerald, Scott

  • Democrat Challenger

    Beck, Andrew

  • Democrat Challenger

    Steinhoff, Ben

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 61.7%
  • Democrat 38.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereWI-5 61.7%38.3%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +15.1 51.9% −13.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
28.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026