Riding profile

AZ-5

US House district — AZ · Mixed · us az

The question

AZ-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 55.2%
  • Democrat 44.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereAZ-5 55.2%44.8%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +10.2 54.3% −9.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

AZ-5, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BIGGS, ANDY

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Biggs, Andy

  • Democrat Open seat

    Bracht, Blake

  • Democrat Open seat

    Hualde, Brian

  • Democrat Open seat

    James, Christopher Lee

  • Democrat Open seat

    Lee, Elizabeth

  • Republican Open seat

    Grantham, Travis W.

  • Republican Open seat

    Keenan, Daniel

  • Republican Open seat

    Lamb, Mark

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
20.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026