Riding profile

AZ-5

US House district — AZ · Mixed · us az

The question

AZ-5: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

AZ-5, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

BIGGS, ANDY

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Republican

Daniel Keenan 46%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll Jun 24, 2026 · byremington

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Biggs, Andy

  • Democrat Open seat

    Bracht, Blake

  • Democrat Open seat

    Hualde, Brian

  • Democrat Open seat

    James, Christopher Lee

  • Democrat Open seat

    Lee, Elizabeth

  • Republican Open seat

    Grantham, Travis W.

  • Republican Open seat

    Keenan, Daniel

  • Republican Open seat

    Lamb, Mark

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 57.8%
  • Democrat 42.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereAZ-5 57.8%42.2%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +11.1 51.9% −9.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
20.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026