Arizona’s 5th District
U.S. House · AZ-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 27%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 74% chance (88% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 88% |
| Orbit | Republican | 74% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 81% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| AZ-5 | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+10.4 | 54.9%−9.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 15.3% (± 0.5) |
|---|
Current member
Biggs, Andy · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Elizabeth Lee | 66.0% | 30,857 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Mark Lamb | 58.7% | 52,352 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 20.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 9.5 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated