Arizona’s 4th District
U.S. House · AZ-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 91% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 91% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 95% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-4 | 59.8% | 40.2% | 0.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+4.9 | 43.9%−3.7 | 1.2%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 20.7% (± 0.5) |
|---|
Current member
Greg Stanton · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Greg Stanton | 62.3% | 35,551 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Zuhdi Jasser | 100.0% | 39,431 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 7.3 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 19.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated