Riding profile

AZ-4

US House district — AZ · Mixed · us az

The question

AZ-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

AZ-4, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

STANTON, GREG

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Greg Stanton 46%

2 candidates polled · Latest poll Jul 8, 2026 · bybraun_research

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Stanton, Greg

  • Democrat Challenger

    Newkirk, Kai

  • Republican Challenger

    Davison, Jerone

  • Republican Challenger

    Jasser, M. Zuhdi

  • Republican Challenger

    Stovall, Alex Nicolas

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 57.0%
  • Republican 43.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereAZ-4 57.0%43.0%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +5.2 46.6% −3.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
7.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026