Riding profile

AZ-4

US House district — AZ · Mixed · us az

The question

AZ-4: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 59.7%
  • Republican 40.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereAZ-4 59.7%40.1%0.2%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +5.3 44.9% −4.8 5.1% −4.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

AZ-4, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

STANTON, GREG

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Stanton, Greg

  • Democrat Challenger

    Newkirk, Kai

  • Republican Challenger

    Davison, Jerone

  • Republican Challenger

    Jasser, M. Zuhdi

  • Republican Challenger

    Stovall, Alex Nicolas

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
7.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.3 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026