Riding profile

AZ-7

US House district — AZ · Mixed · us az

The question

AZ-7: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

AZ-7, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 66% vote share, against 34% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GRIJALVA, ADELITA

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Grijalva, Adelita

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 66.2%
  • Republican 33.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereAZ-7 66.2%33.8%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +14.4 46.6% −12.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
26.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026