Riding profile
AZ-7
The question
AZ-7: a safe seat for the Democrats?
Current forecast
Democrat
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 38.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| HereAZ-7 | 69.0% | 31.0% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.3% +14.7 | 44.9% −13.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
AZ-7, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 69% vote share, against 31% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
GRIJALVA, ADELITA
Sits with Democrat
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Democrat Incumbent
Grijalva, Adelita
-
Republican Challenger Butierez, Daniel
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026