Riding profile

AZ-6

US House district — AZ · Mixed · us az

The question

AZ-6: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

AZ-6, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 49% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

CISCOMANI, JUAN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Ciscomani, Juan

  • Democrat Challenger

    Donat, Chris

  • Democrat Challenger

    Goldman, Mo

  • Democrat Challenger

    Mendoza, Joanna

  • Other Challenger

    Dickerson, Trevor

  • Other Challenger

    Peters, Jereme Lance

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
89%
Mean margin (pts)
1.8
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 50.8%
  • Republican 49.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereAZ-6 50.8%49.1%0.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% −1.1 46.6% +2.5 5.4% −5.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PAC 8–Jun 11 500 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 45
link
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America 12–Mar 14 400 LV
Democrat 47 Republican 44
link
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America 12–Mar 14 400 LV
Democrat 43 Republican 42
link
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC 14–Oct 15 581 RV
Democrat 42 Republican 41
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
2.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026