Riding profile

AZ-6

US House district — AZ · Mixed · us az

The question

AZ-6: will Republican lose this seat to Democrat?

Current forecast

Democrat

Competitive

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 6.2
P(close race): 25%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Democrat	Republican	Other
HereAZ-6	52.8%	46.5%	0.7%
National averageUnited States	54.3% −1.5	44.9% +1.6	5.1% −4.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

4 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Pop.	Topline	Source
Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PAC	8–Jun 11	500	LV	Democrat 47 Republican 45	link
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America	12–Mar 14	400	LV	Democrat 47 Republican 44	link
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America	12–Mar 14	400	LV	Democrat 43 Republican 42	link
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	14–Oct 15	581	RV	Democrat 42 Republican 41	link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Editorial read

AZ-6, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Republicans, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

CISCOMANI, JUAN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

Other Challenger

Dickerson, Trevor
Other Challenger

Peters, Jereme Lance

Previous election · 2024

Won by

Republican

Margin

2.5 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+3.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: September 16, 2026
Cycle: us_house_2026