Arizona’s 6th District

U.S. House · AZ-6

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 83% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.1 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 35%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 53.3%

JoAnna Mendoza
Republican 46.6%

Juan Ciscomani, incumbent

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 74% chance (83% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	83%
Orbit	Democrat	74%
50/50 blend	Democrat	79%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
AZ-6	53.3%	46.6%	0.2%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−1.6	43.9%+2.7	1.2%−1.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 4 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Normington, Petts & Associates House Majority PAC	8–Jun 11, 2026	500	likely voters	JoAnna Mendoza (D) 47 Juan Ciscomani (R) 45	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 1	12–Mar 14, 2026	400	likely voters	JoAnna Mendoza (D) 47 Juan Ciscomani (R) 44	See the poll
Ragnar Research Partners Conservatives for America Scenario 2	12–Mar 14, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Democrat (D) 43 Generic Republican (R) 42	See the poll
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	14–Oct 15, 2025	581	registered voters	JoAnna Mendoza (D) 42 Juan Ciscomani (R) 41	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	21.2% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Juan Ciscomani · Republican

Primary results

Held July 21, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	JoAnna Mendoza	100.0%	78,310 votes
Republican primary	Juan Ciscomani	100.0%	76,481 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Juan Ciscomani
source
Democrat Challenger

JoAnna Mendoza
source
Other Challenger

Dickerson, Trevor

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Peters, Jereme Lance

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 2.5 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 8.1 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

AZ-5 Republican, competitive
AZ-4 Democrat, safe seat
AZ-1 Democrat, toss-up
AZ-3 Democrat, safe seat
AZ-8 Republican, toss-up
AZ-7 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026