Riding profile
AZ-9
The question
AZ-9: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereAZ-9 | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +15.0 | 54.3% −14.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
AZ-9, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 60% vote share, against 40% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
GOSAR, PAUL DR.
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Republican Incumbent
Gosar, Paul Dr.
-
Democrat Challenger Sterbinsky, Danielle
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026