Arizona’s 9th District
U.S. House · AZ-9
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 91% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 91% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 95% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| AZ-9 | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+15.9 | 54.9%−14.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 24.7% (± 0.6) |
|---|
Current member
Paul Gosar · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Danielle Sterbinsky | 100.0% | 35,700 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Paul Gosar | 100.0% | 79,336 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 30.6 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 19.5 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated