Riding profile

AZ-9

US House district — AZ · Mixed · us az

The question

AZ-9: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

AZ-9, a mixed riding in AZ, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 63% vote share, against 37% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

GOSAR, PAUL DR.

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Gosar, Paul Dr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Sterbinsky, Danielle

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 62.5%
  • Democrat 37.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereAZ-9 62.5%37.5%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +15.9 51.9% −14.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
30.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026