Riding profile

IL-10

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-10: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

IL-10, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 63% vote share, against 37% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SCHNEIDER, BRADLEY S.

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Schneider, Bradley S.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Coghill, Morgan

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 62.9%
  • Republican 37.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereIL-10 62.9%37.1%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +11.0 46.6% −9.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
19.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026