Riding profile

IL-9

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-9: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
46.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 73.3%

    Daniel Biss

  • Republican 26.7%

    John Elleson

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereIL-9 73.3%26.7%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +19.0 44.9% −18.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

IL-9, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 73% vote share, against 27% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SCHAKOWSKY, JANICE D

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 17, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

DANIEL BISS 29.4%

38,804 votes

Republican primary

Winner

JOHN ELLESON 48.9%

7,545 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Open seat

    Biss, Daniel

  • Republican Open seat

    John Elleson

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
36.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026