Riding profile

IL-1

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-1: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
42.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 71.3%

    Jonathan Jackson incumbent

  • Republican 28.6%

    Christian Maxwell

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereIL-1 71.3%28.6%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +17.0 44.9% −16.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

IL-1, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 71% vote share, against 29% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

JACKSON, JONATHAN

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 17, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

JONATHAN L. JACKSON 100.0%

89,662 votes

Republican primary

Winner

CHRISTIAN MAXWELL 64.5%

12,472 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Jackson, Jonathan

  • Republican Challenger

    Maxwell, Christian

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
31.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026