Illinois’s 14th District
U.S. House · IL-14
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 94% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Democrat | > 99% |
| Orbit | Democrat | 94% |
| 50/50 blend | Democrat | 97% |
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| IL-14 | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.9%+6.2 | 43.9%−5.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 17.8% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Lauren Underwood · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Lauren Underwood | 100.0% | 56,414 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | James T. "jim" Marter | 74.9% | 23,312 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 10.2 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 22.3 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated