Riding profile

IL-14

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-14: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

IL-14, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 58% vote share, against 42% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

UNDERWOOD, LAUREN

Sits with Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Underwood, Lauren

  • Republican Challenger

    Davis, Jed

  • Republican Challenger

    Marter, James Thomas

  • Republican Challenger

    Vician, Gary

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 58.3%
  • Republican 41.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereIL-14 58.3%41.7%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +6.5 46.6% −5.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
10.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026