Riding profile

IL-14

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-14: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 61.0%

    Lauren Underwood incumbent

  • Republican 39.0%

    James Thomas Marter

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereIL-14 61.0%39.0%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +6.7 44.9% −6.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

IL-14, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 61% vote share, against 39% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

UNDERWOOD, LAUREN

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 17, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

LAUREN UNDERWOOD 100.0%

56,414 votes

Republican primary

Winner

JAMES T. "JIM" MARTER 74.9%

23,312 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Underwood, Lauren

  • Republican Challenger

    Marter, James Thomas

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
10.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.9 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026