Riding profile

IL-2

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Editorial read

IL-2, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 70% vote share, against 30% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

KELLY, ROBIN

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Jesse Jackson Jr. 24%

5 candidates polled · Latest poll Dec 3, 2025 · byglobal_strategy_group

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Kelly, Robin

  • Democrat Open seat

    Brown, Yumeka S

  • Democrat Open seat

    France, Eric

  • Democrat Open seat

    Jackson, Jesse L. Jr

  • Democrat Open seat

    Keating, Patrick John

  • Democrat Open seat

    Miller, Donna

  • Democrat Open seat

    Peters, Robert James

  • Democrat Open seat

    Preston, Willie Junior Mr

  • Democrat Open seat

    Regis, Adal

  • Republican Open seat

    Coleman, Calvin

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 69.6%
  • Republican 30.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereIL-2 69.6%30.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +17.7 46.6% −16.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
35.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026