Riding profile

IL-15

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-15: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

IL-15, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 99-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 96% vote share, against 4% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MILLER, MARY

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Miller, Mary

  • Democrat Challenger

    Davis, Paul R Dr. Jr

  • Democrat Challenger

    Todd, Jennifer Ann

  • Republican Challenger

    Bowlby, Judy

  • Republican Challenger

    Tebrugge, Ryan

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
92.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 96.1%
  • Democrat 3.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereIL-15 96.1%3.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +49.4 51.9% −47.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
99.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.0 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026