Riding profile

IL-15

US House district — IL · Mixed · us il

The question

IL-15: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
87.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 93.7%

    Mary Miller incumbent

  • Democrat 6.3%

    Jennifer Ann Todd

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereIL-15 93.7%6.3%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +48.7 54.3% −48.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

IL-15, a mixed riding in IL, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 99-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 94% vote share, against 6% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

MILLER, MARY

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Mar 17, 2026 · Official count — not yet certified

Democratic primary

Winner

JENNIFER TODD 45.7%

13,708 votes

Republican primary

Winner

MARY E. MILLER 73.6%

64,855 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Miller, Mary

  • Democrat Challenger

    Todd, Jennifer Ann

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
99.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.7 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026