Illinois’s 15th District
U.S. House · IL-15
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| IL-15 | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+20.6 | 54.9%−19.4 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 2.2% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Mary E. Miller · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Jennifer Todd | 45.7% | 13,708 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Mary E. Miller | 73.6% | 64,855 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 99.1 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 28.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated