Riding profile

NE-1

US House district — NE · Mixed · us ne

The question

NE-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

NE-1, a mixed riding in NE, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 57% vote share, against 43% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

FLOOD, MIKE

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Flood, Mike

  • Democrat Challenger

    Backemeyer, Christopher

  • Democrat Challenger

    Moyer, Eric Hamilton

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 56.5%
  • Democrat 43.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereNE-1 56.5%43.5%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +9.9 51.9% −8.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Zenith Research 8–May 11 401 RV
Republican 45 Democrat 38
link
Zenith Research 8–May 11 401 RV
Republican 44
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
20.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.2 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026