Nebraska’s 1st District

U.S. House · NE-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 78% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.3 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 40%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 52.7%

Mike Flood, incumbent
Democrat 47.3%

Chris Backemeyer

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 72% chance (78% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	78%
Orbit	Republican	72%
50/50 blend	Republican	75%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
NE-1	52.7%	47.3%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+8.9	54.9%−7.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 5 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	19–Oct 20, 2026	—	likely voters	Mike Flood (R) 46 Chris Backemeyer (D) 45	See the poll
Global Strategy Group Fight for Nebraska PAC Scenario 1	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 3, 2026	600	likely voters	Chris Backemeyer (D) 49 Mike Flood (R) 45	See the poll
Global Strategy Group Fight for Nebraska PAC Scenario 2	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 3, 2026	600	likely voters	Chris Backemeyer (D) 43 Mike Flood (R) 42	See the poll
Zenith Research Scenario 1	8–May 11, 2026	401	registered voters	Mike Flood (R) 45 Chris Backemeyer (D) 38	See the poll
Zenith Research Scenario 2	8–May 11, 2026	401	registered voters	Mike Flood (R) 44 Austin Ahlman (Ind.) 36	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.1% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Mike Flood · Republican

Primary results

Held May 12, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Chris Backemeyer	57.6%	26,523 votes
Republican primary	Mike Flood	100.0%	53,094 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Mike Flood
source
Democrat Challenger

Chris Backemeyer
source
Other Challenger

Ahlman, Austin Lawrence

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 20.2 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.3 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NE-2 Democrat, safe seat
NE-3 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026