Riding profile
NE-1
The question
NE-1: a safe seat for the Republicans?
Current forecast
Republican
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.7
- P(close race)
- 1%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| HereNE-1 | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.9% +9.9 | 54.3% −9.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
District polls
Polls in this district
2 polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenith Research | 8–May 11 | 401 | RV | link | |
| Zenith Research | 8–May 11 | 401 | RV | link |
District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.
Editorial read
NE-1, a mixed riding in NE, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 55% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
FLOOD, MIKE
Sits with Republican
Who's running
The candidates
Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.
- Other Challenger
Ahlman, Austin Lawrence
Previous election · 2024
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
us_house_2026