Riding profile

NE-3

US House district — NE · Mixed · us ne

The question

NE-3: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Current forecast

Republican

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
49.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 74.7%
  • Democrat 25.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat
HereNE-3 74.7%25.4%
National averageUnited States 44.9% +29.7 54.3% −29.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

NE-3, a mixed riding in NE, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 61-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 75% vote share, against 25% for the Democrats, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

SMITH, ADRIAN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Other Challenger

    Cohen, Mark

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
60.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026