Nebraska’s 3rd District
U.S. House · NE-3
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 48.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a > 99% chance (> 99% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | > 99% |
| Orbit | Republican | > 99% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | > 99% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| NE-3 | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+30.5 | 54.9%−29.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 7.8% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Adrian Smith · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Becky Stille | 100.0% | 18,113 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Adrian Smith | 64.7% | 60,549 votes |
Who's running
The candidates
Candidates for the upcoming election.
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 60.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 48.8 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated