Riding profile

NE-2

US House district — NE · Mixed · us ne

The question

NE-2: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

NE-2, a mixed riding in NE, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 53% vote share, against 47% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

BACON, DONALD J

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

John Cavanaugh 43%

5 candidates polled · Latest poll Jan 12, 2026 · bygbao

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Bacon, Donald J

  • Democrat Open seat

    Askins, Kishla

  • Democrat Open seat

    Cavanaugh, John

  • Democrat Open seat

    Johnston, Mark Edmund

  • Democrat Open seat

    Leuschen, James

  • Democrat Open seat

    Powell, Denise

  • Democrat Open seat

    Rhoades, Crystal

  • Republican Open seat

    Harding, Brinker

  • Republican Open seat

    Lindstrom, Brett

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.3
P(close race)
42%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 52.6%
  • Republican 47.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican
HereNE-2 52.6%47.4%
National averageUnited States 51.9% +0.8 46.6% +0.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

District polls

Polls in this district

3 polls

Pollster Field dates Sample Pop. Topline Source
Public Policy Polling 22–Oct 23 594 RV
Democrat 46 Republican 39
link
Public Policy Polling 22–Oct 23 594 RV
Democrat 49 Republican 42
link
Public Policy Polling 22–Oct 23 594 RV
Democrat 44 Republican 39
link

District-level polls, topline only. Vote-Scope reports each published poll as the pollster released it; figures are not the Vote-Scope projection.

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
1.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026