Nebraska’s 2nd District

U.S. House · NE-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 9%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 57.2%

Denise Powell
Republican 42.8%

Brinker Harding

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 76% chance (97% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	97%
Orbit	Democrat	76%
50/50 blend	Democrat	87%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican
NE-2	57.2%	42.8%
National averageUnited States	54.9%+2.3	43.9%−1.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

3 polls, 5 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
National Public Affairs God, Family, & Country PAC	2–Oct 5, 2026	377	likely voters	Denise Powell (D) 50 Brinker Harding (R) 38 Eric Michael Foreman (Lib.) 6	See the poll
Surveyusa Grant Forbes, LLC	8–Sep 13, 2026	182	likely voters	Denise Powell (D) 46 Brinker Harding (R) 42	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 1	22–Oct 23, 2025	594	registered voters	John Cavanaugh (D) 46 Generic Republican (R) 39	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 2	22–Oct 23, 2025	594	registered voters	Generic Democrat (D) 49 Generic Republican (R) 42	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Scenario 3	22–Oct 23, 2025	594	registered voters	Denise Powell (D) 44 Generic Republican (R) 39	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.5% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Bacon, Donald J · Republican

Primary results

Held May 12, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Denise Powell	38.8%	22,516 votes
Republican primary	Brinker Harding	100.0%	39,689 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Denise Powell
source
Republican Open seat

Brinker Harding
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 1.9 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 14.5 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

NE-1 Republican, toss-up
NE-3 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026