Riding profile

CO-2

US House district — CO · Mixed · us co

The question

CO-2: a safe seat for the Democrats?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
51.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 75.1%

    Joseph Neguse incumbent

  • Republican 24.0%

    Kelley Anne Dennison

  • Other 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereCO-2 75.1%24.0%0.9%
National averageUnited States 54.3% +20.7 44.9% −20.9 5.1% −4.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

CO-2, a mixed riding in CO, elected a member with the Democrats in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 75% vote share, against 24% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

NEGUSE, JOSEPH

Sits with Democrat

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 30, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Joe Neguse 100.0%

136,146 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Kelley Anne Dennison 57.9%

21,584 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Incumbent

    Neguse, Joseph

  • Republican Open seat

    Kelley Anne Dennison

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Democrat
Margin
39.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.6 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026