Riding profile

CO-8

US House district — CO · Mixed · us co

The question

CO-8: will Republican lose this seat to Democrat?

Current forecast

Democrat

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.5
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Democrat 53.7%

    Manny Rutinel

  • Republican 45.2%

    Gabe Evans

  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. FL-22Democrat68 %1.1 pt margin
  2. AZ-2Republican57 %1.1 pt margin
  3. OH-10Democrat60 %1.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Democrat Republican Other
HereCO-8 53.7%45.2%1.0%
National averageUnited States 54.3% −0.6 44.9% +0.3 5.1% −4.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

CO-8, a mixed riding in CO, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 54% vote share, against 45% for the Republicans, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

EVANS, TIMOTHY GABRIEL JOSEPH

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Primary results

Held Jun 30, 2026 · Certified official result

Democratic primary

Winner

Manny Rutinel 62.8%

50,435 votes

Republican primary

Winner

Gabe Evans 100.0%

48,012 votes

Official source →

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Rutinel, Manny

  • Republican Open seat

    Gabe Evans

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
0.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.8 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026