Colorado’s 8th District

U.S. House · CO-8

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.0 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 36%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 53.1%

Manny Rutinel
Republican 46.6%

Gabe Evans

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Democrat, with a 78% chance (82% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Democrat	82%
Orbit	Democrat	78%
50/50 blend	Democrat	80%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
CO-8	53.1%	46.6%	0.3%
National averageUnited States	54.9%−1.8	43.9%+2.7	1.2%−0.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll, 2 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Mclaughlin & Associates Enhancing American Competitiveness Scenario 1	16–Sep 17, 2026	400	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 47 Generic Democrat (D) 47	See the poll
Mclaughlin & Associates Enhancing American Competitiveness Scenario 2	16–Sep 17, 2026	400	likely voters	Gabe Evans (R) 48 Manny Rutinel (D) 46	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	30.7% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Gabe Evans · Republican

Primary results

Held June 30, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Manny Rutinel	62.8%	50,435 votes
Republican primary	Gabe Evans	100.0%	48,012 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Gabe Evans

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Challenger

Manny Rutinel
source
Republican Open seat

Gabe Evans
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 0.7 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 8.0 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

CO-1 Democrat, safe seat
CO-6 Democrat, safe seat
CO-2 Democrat, safe seat
CO-5 Republican, toss-up
CO-7 Democrat, safe seat
CO-4 Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026