Riding profile

CO-8

US House district — CO · Mixed · us co

The question

CO-8: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

CO-8, a mixed riding in CO, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Democrats ahead at 51% vote share, against 48% for the Republicans, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

EVANS, TIMOTHY GABRIEL JOSEPH

Sits with Republican

Primary race

Who leads in the primary

Democrat

Manny Rutinel 44%

3 candidates polled · Latest poll Jun 14, 2026 · bygbao

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Evans, Timothy Gabriel Joseph
Democrat Challenger

Baca-Oehlert, Amie
Democrat Challenger

Bird, Shannon Kathleen
Democrat Challenger

Caraveo, Yadira
Democrat Challenger

Hassler, Daniel Shane Mr
Democrat Challenger

Munsing, Evan
Democrat Challenger

Rutinel, Manny
Democrat Challenger

Young, David L.
Republican Challenger

Derito, Adam

Current forecast

Democrat

Toss-up

Probability: 91%
Mean margin (pts): 3.3
P(close race): 80%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 51.3%
Republican 48.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Democrat	Republican	Other
HereCO-8	51.3%	48.3%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	51.9% −0.5	46.6% +1.6	5.4% −5.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by

Republican

Margin

0.7 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+2.5 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 15, 2026
Cycle: us_house_2026