Colorado’s 4th District
U.S. House · CO-4
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 63% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 50%.
What Orbit says
Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 50% chance (63% according to Harfang des neiges).
| Model | Favourite | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | Republican | 63% |
| Orbit | Republican | 50% |
| 50/50 blend | Republican | 57% |
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CO-4 | 49.4% | 47.2% | 3.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 43.9%+5.5 | 54.9%−7.7 | 1.2%+2.2 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 11.8% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Lauren Boebert · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Eileen Laubacher | 100.0% | 72,483 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Lauren Boebert | 100.0% | 92,651 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 11.6 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated