Riding profile

CO-4

US House district — CO · Mixed · us co

The question

CO-4: a safe seat for the Republicans?

Editorial read

CO-4, a mixed riding in CO, elected a member with the Republicans in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Republicans ahead at 53% vote share, against 45% for the Democrats, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

BOEBERT, LAUREN

Sits with Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Declared and on-ballot candidates for the upcoming election.

  • Republican Incumbent

    Boebert, Lauren

  • Democrat Challenger

    Calvarese, Trisha

  • Democrat Challenger

    Laubacher, Eileen

  • Democrat Challenger

    Padora, John J Jr.

  • Democrat Challenger

    Preston, Jenna Michalik

  • Other Challenger

    Veldhuizen, Timothy

Current forecast

Republican

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.2
P(close race)
17%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Republican 52.7%
  • Democrat 45.5%
  • Other 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Republican Democrat Other
HereCO-4 52.7%45.5%1.9%
National averageUnited States 46.6% +6.0 51.9% −6.4 5.4% −3.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 435 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · US HOUSE_2024

Won by
Republican
Margin
11.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.4 pts

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
us_house_2026