Colorado’s 5th District

U.S. House · CO-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 57% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.9 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 51%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 50.0%

Jeff Crank, incumbent
Democrat 48.8%

Jessica Killin
Other 1.2%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

What Orbit says

Orbit, our experimental model, picks the same favourite as our main forecast: the Republican, with a 57% chance (57% according to Harfang des neiges).

Model	Favourite	Chance
Harfang des neiges	Republican	57%
Orbit	Republican	57%
50/50 blend	Republican	57%

Figures as of November 2, 2026. The blend averages the two chances; in replays of the 2018 and 2022 Quebec elections, it beat our main forecast on its own.

Every race according to Orbit

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
CO-5	50.0%	48.8%	1.2%
National averageUnited States	43.9%+6.1	54.9%−6.1	1.2%

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

4 polls, 6 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Public Policy Polling House Majority PAC	19–Oct 20, 2026	577	likely voters	Jessica Killin (D) 47 Jeff Crank (R) 47	See the poll
Global Strategy Group Scenario 1	14–Oct 18, 2026	500	likely voters	Jessica Killin (D) 46 Jeff Crank (R) 44	See the poll
Global Strategy Group Scenario 2	14–Oct 18, 2026	500	likely voters	Jessica Killin (D) 43 Jeff Crank (R) 38 Christopher Mitchell (CON) 4 Mark G. Elworth (Lib.) 3	See the poll
Global Strategy Group Scenario 3	14–Oct 18, 2026	500	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 44 Generic Democrat (D) 44	See the poll
Global Strategy Group	16–Jul 21, 2026	450	likely voters	Jeff Crank (R) 45 Jessica Killin (D) 44	See the poll
Global Strategy Group	Oct 30, 2025 – Nov 3, 2025	450	likely voters	Jeff Crank (R) 43 Jessica Killin (D) 40 Matt Cavanaugh (Ind.) 5	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	14.9% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Jeff Crank · Republican

Primary results

Held June 30, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Jessica Killin	61.2%	45,511 votes
Republican primary	Jeff Crank	100.0%	76,547 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Jeff Crank
source
Democrat Challenger

Jessica Killin
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 13.8 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 5.9 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

CO-6 Democrat, safe seat
CO-7 Democrat, safe seat
CO-1 Democrat, safe seat
CO-4 Republican, toss-up
CO-8 Democrat, toss-up
CO-2 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: November 2, 2026